Ontario Election Post-Mortem

In November 2004, the McGuinty Liberals promised a citizen's asembly similar to the British Columbia version to examine electoral reform. In the spring of 2006, the Ontario Citizen's Assembly, comprised of 104 Ontarians, reviewed electoral reform while considering eight principles and characterisitics. After eight months of consultation with experts and deliberation, the Assembly decided on electoral reform and an MMP system.

The run-up to the referendum on 10 October was filled with controversy, especially from the Pro-MMP side. It was thought that:

1) The decision by Elections Ontario adhere to strict neutrality was a de facto endorsement of the status quo. Alternatively, it was argued whether or not it was feasible to expect a body couched in neutrality to argue one way or another on this issue. Some suggested that responsibility for the referendum should have been taken out of the hands of Elections Ontario completely, and equal funding given to the opposing sides of the MMP debate directly from government.


1a) In any case, the "Vote for MMP" side enjoyed a vastly disproportionate amount of private funding and widespread support among many elites. This was countered by editorial boards of major Ontario newspapers, who came down opposed to change.


2) Elections Ontario did not do a good job with informing the public. This argument seems specious in light of the fact that ads were placed in newspapers, television, and radio; paper inserts also accompanied voter registration cards (Ontario still registers voters before every election). The criticism might be more justified in regards to (3)...


3)...holding the referendum on the same day as a general election would take the focus away from the issue.



4) the terms of victory were too high. Acceptance of MMP hinged on garnering 60% of votes cast and a majority in 64 of 107 ridings.


5) MMP was the wrong PR method. Some may have been more amenable to an STV system recommended for BC by their Citizen's Assembly (although STV is not technically a PR system).



The result: a shellacking at the ballot box, as retention of FPTP enjoyed a 2-1 margin of votes. MMP only won a majority of votes in 5 downtown Toronto ridings, 4 of which traditionally swing toward the social-democratic NDP.


A few notes about the rest of the election: it was a depressingly boring campaign that effectively ended in late August when PC leader John Tory promised public funding for private religious schools. The Liberals seized upon this (and arguably played up anti-Sharia fear) and a groundswell of oppositon across the spectrum in Ontario made this single issue the defining one. Interestingly the Liberals are in favour of the current education system that fully funds Catholic schools.

-the Liberals won a sweeping majority (in FPTP terms): 71 seats out of 107 with 42% of the vote. The Green party more than doubled its vote count from the last election and may have enjoyed much of the protest vote (although it could be said that the 'protest vote' mainly just stayed home).

-the turnout was the worst on record: 52.6%.

-there had not been a referendum in Ontario in 83 years. The 1924 refendum was on prohibition.